Rugby World Cup so far & preview of final

With the rugby world cup final this weekend I thought I would have  to preview it and also write about how the tournament has been to date.  This weekend the All Blacks take on the French in the showpiece finale whilst the Aussies take on the Welsh for the bronze prize.

The semi finals were exciting but in very different ways.  France vs Wales was low scoring but no one would have predicted Wales to play the way they did with 14 men after they lost their captain, Sam Warburton, in the first half.  As for the sending off I am with the majority that this was only a yellow card offence at most and believe it spoilt the game and ruined Wales chances.  In saying that Wales were inches away  from pulling off one of the best results in World Cup history and had plenty of chances for a drop goal attempt towards the end.  If they had have taken these chances we could be looking at a very different final.

The other semi final was total domination by the All Blacks.  They were out to set a marker against their old foes and did so in the first 10 minutes.  The All Blacks may be known for choking but they were never going to choke in their old backyard against the enemy and dominated the rest of the game.  To be honest they probably should have won by more.

The tournament in general has been, in my eyes, the best world cup so far.  Smaller nations in the rugby fraternity have closed the gaps on the more dominant forces.  Romania gave Scotland a scare, USA pushed Ireland all the way and just when all the big guns thought they were safe from a potential embarrassment Tonga beat France to confirm how much the gap is closing.

Before the world cup not too many pundits gave the Northern Hemisphere teams a chance and believed the trophy would fall into the hands of one of the Tri Nations teams, probably in an All Blacks v Aussies final.  This World Cup proved that the gap between the hemispheres is also closing with Ireland beating the Aussies (putting a spanner in everyone's final prediction ha) and Wales coming so close to beating South Africa.

The 1/4 finals were all closely fought games even the Argies against the All Blacks as they pushed them further than any team to date.  Then as discussed the semi finals were brilliant in different ways.  Some teams have really helped make this tournament with Wales, Ireland and Argentina winning a lot of fans.  Wales have played some terrific rugby and may actually have blown one of their best chances of winning a tournament as despite a young team you don't know how it will perform in 4 years.  

Hopefully the final this week can cap of a brilliant tournament.  In the final are 2 teams in contrasting form.  The All Blacks are yet to lose and the French have lost twice, once to the All Blacks in the pool stage.  From this alone you would be predicting an All Blacks win which would be reinforced by how the teams have played throughout the tournament.  The All Blacks have looked slick and stylish as we have come to expect but they have added a new dimension to their game.  They now have intensity, hard work and from their semi final clear drive and focus to complete the job at home.

The French on the other hand have been stop start and really stuttered their way to the final.  The French are the most unpredictable team, one day they can blow you away and the next they are mediocre to say the least.  Funnily after the group match against the All Blacks, a friend said my bet with him that the All Blacks would win the tournament is looking good to which I replied don't be surprised if that is the final.  The reason for my prediction is I knew France were going into an all northern hemisphere side and on their day are capable of beating anyone.

This is why in the final I do not believe it will be an All Black onslaught as many predict.  I am sticking with my prediction that the All Blacks will win but I cannot see France playing that badly in a final.  I think the All Blacks will win by 5-10 points with a fitting Richie McCaw as man of the match and player of the tournament.  I think the forward battle will be immense as France have forwards who on their day can match the All Blacks intensity and drive.  However I believe the French backs will struggle to curtail the likes of Nonu, Jayne and Dagg who are in blistering form at the minute.

The Wales v Australia match may actually be the best game of the tournament as both teams play open and fast running games so I am expecting a high scoring affair.  I think Wales have done magnificently to date and this will just be one hurdle to far for them as Australia will be out to prove a point after last weeks hammering to the enemy.

All in all the tournament has been fantastic with some hard hitting, intense and skill packed rugby matched with the beautiful setting of New Zealand and its warm and friendly people.  In my eyes it would be fitting that the All Blacks win the trophy as lets face it, they are the best team in the world for the last number of years and deserve it.  However you don't always get what you deserve in sport!


 

Do managers get a fair crack at the whip?

We are nearly 2 months into the new Premiership season and already some managers are feeling the heat.  Martinez, Wenger, Kean, Bruce and Coyle have to look over their shoulders regarding their jobs as fans and I am sure the board are becoming concerned with results.  Bookies have these managers as favourites to be the first sacking of the season. 

(Wenger feeling the pressure)

The tables can quickly turn on managers.  Look at Coyle and Martinez for example: last year Martinez was a hero for keeping Wigan Athletic up and Coyle was branded as a very good young manager for getting Bolton Wanderers to the FA Cup semi fnal.

The problem is that fans can be very fickle and a slow start to a season or a few poor results can cause them to start the "out" chants at the end of or during games towards managers who may have revolutionised the club (Wenger for example).  This then resonates to the board, particularly the chairman, who can sometimes make very hasty decisions to satisy their main customers.

(Fans turn so quickly)

Personally I think managers nowadays do not get enough time and clubs are to dismiss them.  In the old days managers were given more time to put their stamp on clubs.  Sir Alex Ferguson took 6 years to win a trophy with Man Utd.  If Man Utd had have dismissed Fergie before this would the club have grown into the monster it now is?, the answer, NO.  The reason for this is that Fergie has transformed the club several times during his time there and has continued to drive success from it. 

Nowadays managers are lucky to be given 6 months never mind 6 years.  Since the good old days manager dismissals have dramatically increased and as a result the average tenure is becoming a lot shorter.  Last season in the League Managers Association there were 58 changes of manager with dismissals accounting for 40 of those and the average tenure was 1.58 years.  

Two thirds of dismissed managers last season were sacked at below average tenure and half of those dismissed were gone within a year of appointment while nine managers were sacked six months of being appointed.  It has changed a lot from when Sir Alex started as Man Utd manager.

There are some clubs who are more faithful than others to their managers.  Apart from obviously Man Utd and Arsenal who have the 2 current longest serving managers, Everton are a perfect example.  It is easy for Man Utd and Arsenal (until this season) to hold onto their managers as they were always around the top fighting it out for trophies on all fronts.  Everton on the other hand cannot always say this but they have stuck with David Moyes for what is coming up to be his 10th year (remarkable in this day and age).  Even last year when Everton started so poorly and were bottom of the pile Bill Kenwright, Everton chairman, stuck by his man through difficult times where a lot of others would ahve dismissed him.  Everton then reaped the rewards of this decision as they climbed back up to the table to finish 7th.  In recent seasons Moyes has had Everton in the top half of the table and back in the 2004-05 season he lead them to Champions League football.  

(Moyes has been a success at Everton thanks to faith from his Chairman)

Clubs and fans have to realise that only 1 team can win the league and it does not mean the other 19 teams are bad.  In football there is a huge divide betwen the richer and poorer clubs and it is because of this that many clubs can continue to do well.  David Moyes is great at working to a small budget and giving enough time other managers would be too. 

This does not just apply to football as there is a tendency to do this in all sports.  The only difference is that football clubs have more money and can afford to dismiss managers in the middle of their contracts more regularly.  Also in other sports like Rugby Union and League there seems to be a tendency for managers to resign before they are sacked or move to other clubs.  New Zealand Rugby Union have shown faith to Graham Henry over the years as after not winning a world cup most NZ managers get shown the door but this didn't happen to him in 2007.  As a result he has them playing well and looking good at this years tournament.  

In conclusion I believe there are the rare cases where after a short time clubs know they made the wrong decision and should dismiss their manager.  However I believe clubs should spend more time on ensuring they get the right manager in, in the first instance, and then show them some faith by giving them a few seasons to put their mark on the club and team.  There is no quick fix or magical wand in sport, as in life, and it takes time, trust, loyalty and commitment from all parties (including fans) to build something special.